Can Nine Out of 10 Economists Be Wrong?
Don’t answer that!
Despite the angst surrounding the crisis in Greece, many economists still anticipate a second half rebound for the U.S. economy. It appears that Greece will need to restructure its debt in the near future. The only question is how the pain is shared between governments and European taxpayers on one side and the holders of Greek bonds (especially European banks) on the other. Assuming that can be finessed, the outlook for the U.S. economy is looking better. Consider that:
· Corporate profits and cash reserves are robust;
· Exports are surging;
· Gas prices have receded in recent days;
· Auto manufacturing will pick up in the second half as supply chains return to normal following the Japanese quake.
Check out some recent comments from noted economists Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, David Malpass of Encima Global and Mark Vitner of Wells Fargo on a CNBC panel last Wednesday (click here). All are moderately bullish with second half GDP forecasts in the range of 3.5 to 4 percent versus the disappointing first quarter performance of 1.8 percent.
Remember, a double-dip is what you order at your favorite ice cream parlor.
Have a great weekend.
SVP, Chief Economist
Grubb & Ellis
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